Toll and revenue forecasting to better understand the 407ETR

The 407ETR was the world’s first all-electronic open access toll highway when it opened in 1997. The road provides an important east-west route across the Greater Toronto region, offering an alternative to Highway 401 and Queen Elizabeth Way, two of the most congested roads in the area, and represents an integral part of the overall road network of the Toronto region.  

The concessionaire constantly monitors the traffic conditions of the area to review and set the new toll tariffs of the 407ETR every January.

How we helped

One of the owners of the concession company commissioned Steer to develop a traffic and revenue forecasting model to help them better understand the facility.

We advised one of the owners of the concession company by conducting the following tasks:

• Developed an understanding of the existing conditions within the study area.
• Developed an Econometric Model of the 407ETR to establish the long-term growth forecasts.
• Developed a Network Model to estimate the impact that changes in infrastructure or toll rates may have on the 407ETR traffic.
• Developed a Forecasting Model that combines the base year (2016) transactions with the outputs from the Econometric and Network Models.
• Carried out toll optimization testing to find the revenue maximizing toll rates.
• Prepared a Base Case forecasts for the 407ETR.

Successes and outcomes

Our client used our study to understand the characteristics of the 407ETR and to help establish the long term operational plan for the Concession.